Monday, August 31, 2015

Ukraine War Update: о нет! лягушачий, нет!

As the Rada was voting on a law allowing for the special status of the Donbas, a protest broke out in front.  The protest turned violent: a grenade was thrown into the police by a member of the Sich Battalion and also a member of Svoboda.  A national guard member died and ~50 others were wounded.  Several seriously.  30 people have been arrested and more grenades recovered.

This is the tight rope Poroshenko must walk.  If he stops fighting in the east, he risks another revolution led by the extreme pro Ukraine elements.  Right Sector, Svoboda, etc all are a major risk of attempting a revolution.  I do not think they will necessarily win.  On the contrary, they probably would not unless Poroshenko totally bumbles it like Yanukovich did.  

However, Ukraine shredding itself from the inside is one of Putin's win scenarios. 

Let's hope that does not happen.

Ironically, if the ceasefire fails, Poroshenko's seat is more secure, at least as far as Kiev is concerned.  There is a hotspot where it seems the DNR's foot soldiers are refusing to accept the ceasefire and started attacking with automatic weapons, but (so far) no artillery or mortars.

Oh and, VP Commissioner Timmermans, based on Europe's actions with respect to Ukraine, you are so full of shit (re soundbite: Europe "will never turn away those who need protection."

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